If the slope holds: METR time horizons to 2030

METR's time-horizon data (Horizon v1.1, fetched 2026-08-29) — the length of software tasks, in human-expert time, that a model completes with a given success rate. The orange dotted line is the slope from GPT-4o to Claude Mythos Preview, run out to the end of 2030. Green hollow dots are made-up future models placed on that line. This is speculation for fun, not a forecast.

confidence intervals speculative models labels

METR-style fit, 2023 onward (all models) GPT-4o → Mythos slope, extrapolated measured model speculative model (invented)

Data table

Data: METR, metr.org/time-horizons (benchmark_results_1_1.yaml). Work units follow METR's convention: 1 work day = 8 h, 1 work week = 40 h, 1 work month = 167 h, 1 work year = 2,000 h. Source on GitHub.